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Polymarket Opportunity Radar: Why Trigger Price Changes the Workflow

A practical guide to source-to-market matching, trigger-price snapshots, approvals, capital controls, and attribution in a Polymarket workflow.

July 27, 2026 · 6 min read
TEMIRIN editorial illustration of a source investigation for “Polymarket Opportunity Radar: Why Trigger Price Changes the Workflow”, showing A practical guide to source-to-market matching, trigger-price snapshots, appro…

Most Polymarket workflows break at the exact moment they should become useful. A trader sees a source item, jumps to a market, refreshes a price, checks a wallet, opens notes, and then tries to reconstruct what the market looked like when the information first arrived. By the time the review is complete, the most important context is often missing: the trigger price.

An opportunity radar should not be a generic alert feed. It should connect a source event to the markets that could plausibly be affected, preserve the price observed at the first trigger, compare that price with the current price, and show whether the move still leaves room for a disciplined decision. Without that chain, users are left with headlines and stale confidence.

The core record is the opportunity signal. It should include the source item, matched markets, predicted direction, confidence, edge estimate, trigger price, current price, spread, liquidity, category, source reliability, decision state, and risk-policy result. That record gives the user a place to decide, approve, reject, watch, or learn later.

Category control matters because not every user should see every market. A sports trader may want injuries, lineups, and game results. A macro trader may care about central banks, inflation releases, labor data, regulation, and geopolitical headlines. The workspace should let users include, exclude, or prioritize categories, then explain why each matched market is relevant to the source that triggered it.

Approval mode is the bridge between manual review and full automation. In a semi-automatic workflow, the system can prepare the opportunity summary and send it to Telegram with the source headline, matched market, trigger price, current price, confidence, suggested stake, and block reasons. The user can approve, reject, snooze, or open the workspace. If the price moves too much before approval, the request should expire.

Capital controls are not a settings page afterthought. They are part of the product promise. Users need per-bet, daily, weekly, source, category, confidence, edge, spread, liquidity, and free-capital limits. Teams need role-aware approvals, kill switches, and audit records. A system that moves quickly without visible limits is not a serious operating layer.

Attribution is where the product becomes better over time. After a position opens, the user should see the trigger price, the open price, the current price or close price, actual PnL, and shadow PnL. Shadow PnL should show what would have happened if the system path had been followed, while actual PnL shows what the user really did. That comparison helps separate good skipped trades, bad approvals, stale signals, and useful sources.

Auto-Reload belongs inside capital policy, not ordinary billing copy. If a future reload workflow is enabled, it should require an explicit user mandate, threshold, reload amount, daily and weekly caps, cooldowns, payment-provider readiness, wallet-route readiness, legal and compliance gates, and an audit trail. It should fail closed when any of those controls are missing.

Temirin should be understood as a Polymarket opportunity operating system, not a promise machine. The product can help users move from source trigger to matched market, trigger-price memory, approval, execution planning, and attribution. It should not promise profits, eliminate risk, or hide the user's responsibility for eligibility, venue rules, sizing, wallet actions, and final decisions.

Polymarket opportunity radarTrigger priceCapital controls